The RESUR II project systematically advances the platform for the design of robust energy systems established in phase I (2022-2025) in response to the new geopolitical era. The project pursues a two-pronged strategy: First, the platform is kept operational so that it can be immediately deployed to conduct ad hoc analyses in the event of a crisis. Second, the methodology is expanded to investigate complex system interrelationships. A unique feature of this approach is that, despite the regulatory unbundling of sectors (electricity, gas, heat) and levels (from generation to consumption), they are recombined within the model to reveal cascade effects and cross-sector dependencies.

In line with phase I, RESUR II is divided into six work packages (WPs) with the focus areas shown in Figure 1:

• WP1: Electricity and gas transmission networks in Europe and Germany
• WP2: Multi-physical models for sector-coupled municipal energy system analysis
• WP3: Macroeconomics and markets
• WP4: Socio-technical analysis and assessment of impacts of disruptive events
• WP5: Disruptive events and energy system resilience
• WP6: Technical platform

Together with FZJ, ITAS is coordinating WP4 “Socio-technical analysis and assessment of the impacts of disruptive events.”

The work carried out by ITAS in WP4 focuses on

1. Context scenarios for the scenario analysis in WP5 and the analysis of societal implications of the investigated disruptive events;
2. Classification and assessment of the alternative configurations of future energy systems developed in WP5 regarding their resilience and sustainability.

Extreme events with disruptive effects on the energy system influence society’s options for action and thus set the socio-economic framework for technical solutions. This framework is depicted within context scenarios using the socio-technical model, which is to be further developed in RESUR II and based on the logic of the cross-impact balance (CIB) approach. The model explicitly maps the interdependencies of technology, economics, the environment, and society, thereby identifying the necessary interrelationships for disruptive events. In fact, the model allows for an in-depth analysis of societal implications of the investigated disruptive events.

To conduct a multi-criteria assessment of alternative energy system configurations, a metric for resilience and sustainability is first developed (covering technical, economic, environmental, social, and organizational criteria). The HELDA software (Helmholtz MCDA Tool) is used for the multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). Both the selection and the weighting of the criteria are carried out with the involvement of societal stakeholders.

By applying MCDA methods, both quantitative and qualitative criteria can be taken into account when assessing energy system pathways and configurations. Furthermore, the influence of partially subjective input data (e.g., the weighting of criteria) on the result can be demonstrated.

The analysis conducted by ITAS can provide political and societal actors with valuable information for their decisions as well as for framing potential policy measures.