The Future of European Long-Distance Transport

  • Project team:

    Schippl, Jens (Project leader); Ida Leisner; Per Kaspersen; Anders Koed Madsen

  • Funding:

    STOA (The Science Technology Options Assessment Panel of the European Parliament)

  • Start date:


  • End date:


  • Research group:

    Mobility Futures

Project description

The project aims at creating scenarios for the year 2047 in which three targets are met for European long-distance transport: a 60% reduction of CO2-emission, an 80% reduction in oil consumption as well as high level in accessibility. The scenarios are worked out together with an interdisciplinary scenario working group established for this project. The methodology used for building the scenarios is the so-called backcasting approach. On basis of three "images" for 2047 technological and political options are discussed to reach the targets in different framings. In doing so, the project is giving an idea of the magnitude and the character of changes that are needed if the three targets should be fulfilled. The results contribute to the discussion of a sustainable European Transport system.

The project was commissioned by STOA and carried out between November 2006 and October 2008 by the Danish Board of Technology and ITAS, both members of the European Technology assessment group ETAG.

The scenarios are prepared and developed in phase I and II of the project. In phase III a citizen's consultation is carried out in three European countries by the Danish Board of technology. Results are documented in an extra report that is available at the STOA homepage.


Journal Articles
Schippl, J.; Leisner, I.
Backcasting in transport: Scenarios for the future of European long-distance transport
2009. Technikfolgenabschätzung, Theorie und Praxis, 18 (2), 63–69 
Schippl, J.; Leisner, I.; Kaspersen, P.; Madsen, A. K.
The Future of European long-distance transport. Scenario report
2009. European Parliament, Science and Technology Options Assessment (STOA) IPOL/A/STOA/ST/2007-7 (October 2008) 


Dipl.-Geogr. Jens Schippl
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)
Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis (ITAS)
P.O. Box 3640
76021 Karlsruhe

Tel.: +49 721 608-23994