Jens Schippl, Ida Leisner, Per Kaspersen, Anders Koed Madsen

The Future of European long-distance transport
Scenario Report

Scenario Report (IP/A/STOA/FWC-2005-28/SC27). Brussels: European Parliament 2008
[Volltext/pdf / 723 kb]   [Executive Summary]


TABLE OF CONTENTS

Purpose and destination of document i
Executive summary ii
 
1.      Motivation and Background 1
2.      Methodology 3
3.      Definition of Long-Distance Transport 5
4.      Targets and Baseline Scenario 8
  4.1      The Targets 8
  4.2      The baseline 9
  4.2.1      System delimitations: 9
  4.2.2      Transport volumes 2005-2047 12
  4.2.3      CO2 Emissions 2005-2047 17
  4.2.4      Energy consumption 2005-2047 23
  4.3      From the baseline to the targets - focus on CO2 27
5.      The Images: Three Snapshots of 2047 31
  5.1      Image I: Strong and rich high-tech Europe 38
  5.2      Image II: Slow and reflexive lifestyles 41
  5.3      Image of contrast III: economic pressure and expensive energy 43
6.      Key Technologies 46
  6.1      ITS and ICT 46
  6.2      Extending infrastructure and removing bottlenecks: examples 47
  6.3      Cleaner fuels and propulsion technologies 49
7.      Policy Packages to Reach the Targets 53
  7.1      Brief documentation of the discussion on policy packages 54
  7.1.1      Tackling air transport - key arguments 55
  7.1.2      Tackling trucking - key arguments 59
  7.2      How to reach the targets 64
  7.2.1      Image I 64
  7.2.2      Image II 66
  7.2.3      Contrast Image 67
8.      Conclusive Remarks 69
9.      References 72
10.      Annexes 75
      Annex A: System delimitations 75
      Annex B: Specific energy usage for trucking changed 84
      Annex D: Expert workshop 90

 

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