Contents

1. Summary

Telematics applications in transport are expected not only to open new markets for the European industry, but also to reduce negative impacts of the transportation system. Studies performed or commissioned by the Office of Technology Assessment at the German Parliament have shown that the technologies needed for the realisation of telematics systems are largely in place and available, but that for a comprehensive assessment additional research on the impacts and costs as well as on organisational barriers and institutional and legal issues is necessary. Some implementation problems experienced in Germany during the last few years are discussed.

2. Introduction

In parallel with economic growth, the traffic system has experienced extraordinary expansion during recent years and today is an important component of the economic and social systems. Transportation is regarded as essential for economic prosperity and growth. The great advantages of come along with considerable negative impacts: accidents, noise, air pollution and increased travel times due to greater density of traffic. Besides the environmental impacts of traffic which have been the subject of debate for some time already, mention must also be made of efficiency losses due to congestion and bottlenecks in road traffic. According to a survey by the EU Commission, stretches of over 4000 km overall length on the European long-distance roads are congested daily. And most of the 400 cities with over 100,000 inhabitants are plagued by daily traffic-jams. Efficiency losses caused by congestion and bottlenecks are linked with considerable costs.

The existing conditions for the development of traffic without offsetting measures will lead to a considerable increase of the volume of traffic and amplify these negative impacts. Correspondingly, measures to relieve the traffic network, mainly the road system, by technical, organisational and infrastructure improvements to keep traffic flowing and to avoid unnecessary or "unnecessarily induced" traffic or to shift, above all, road traffic to environmentally sounder means of transportation are gaining importance and acceptance.

3. Information and communication technologies in transportation - The solution of traffic-induced problems?

Currently we are facing a "boom" in the application of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) in transportation, often referred to as transport telematics. This has two main reasons. On the one hand, the rapid pace of development of modern information and communication technologies is producing completely new applications and services. In the area of transportation, these are being employed not only in those fields which were always linked in the past with the application of available information and communication technologies, such as air traffic or the railways, but above all also in road traffic, and here most notably in private cars. On the other hand, transport telematics is expected to make contributions toward the - at least temporary - solution of problems expected on account of increasing traffic volume. Since an expansion of the road infrastructure in Western Europe is currently only feasible to a very limited extent for financial, social, political and ecological reasons, an integration of the modes of transportation and their efficient control is being sought as a means for the optimal and resource-friendly use of the existing capacities. New concepts in the area of traffic management are designed to take advantage of the specific strengths of the various modes of transport in various regions and situations.

The technologies for the realisation of telematics systems are largely in place and available. Many services are already in operation or will be introduced in the next few years. In some European countries traffic information is already broadcast using Radio Data System / Traffic Message Channel (RDS/TMC) technology. Digital Audio Broadcasting (DAB)/Digital Radio is currently being tested in demonstration projects. Two major German mobile telecommunication service providers have been offering the first stage of their individual dynamic navigation and route guidance services since Summer 1997. GPS-based services have been introduced in public transport and tested for different railway applications. Some European cities (e.g. Paris, Athens and Copenhagen) offer information on the current traffic situation on their main road networks on the Internet. Many transit operators use information technology to improve customer service, to optimise their operations and to reduce costs.

Will all these new technologies and services help to reduce the traffic-induced problems? Within the framework of a study commissioned by the Bundestag, the German Parliament (1), the transport telematics development and implementation activities in Germany during the last few years were analysed to assess the potential of these new technologies and services as well as to identify impacts and obstacles. Reports and deliverables of the key field trials were reviewed and interviews with transportation experts and representatives from different authorities and companies were performed.

4. High expectations, but poor knowledge on impacts

Telematics applications in transport are expected not only to open new markets for the European industry, but also to reduce negative impacts of the transportation system. Many new services have been proposed, a number of already well-known applications was developed further. A main finding of our investigation is that for most of the technologies and services reasonable indication of technical ability and user acceptance were gained but that for a comprehensive assessment of the various applications of telematics in transportation the existing results on the impacts, costs, organisational barriers and implementation issues are not sufficient. This is mainly due to the fact that research in this field in the past was directed mainly toward technology and not toward impacts. The approaches for the assessment of the various field trials and model experiments in transport telematics were directed mainly toward proving technical feasibility and efficiency. The corresponding goal definitions and evaluation criteria thus largely exclude socio-economic and society-related impacts.

The user reactions and thus possible changes of behaviour can scarcely be assessed, or only by making numerous assumptions. Possible impacts on driving behaviour, choice of mode of transport and the consequences with regard to transportation performance and the structure of traffic are currently being discussed vehemently, but certain knowledge on the topics is not yet available. It should also be pointed out that the impacts and effect-chains of measures and bundles of measures to influence individual car traffic include telematics systems, but that only little is known of them. Finally, the scale of the field trials was usually very modest which makes it difficult to conclude on impacts in case of full-scale implementations. At present, only qualitative statements - partly based on quantified results of research - on the impact on traffic of selected applications of telematics are possible:

• Pre-trip information systems can influence route, departure time and mode choice. Major effects could be achieved if the systems allow a combined routing for cars as well as for the use of public transport (PT) and if the information is available already at the point of departure (e.g. at home, at the workplace) or at places where a change of the means of transport is possible. The willingness to pay for these services is rather low, they are mainly considered as a free-of-charge service offer. Therefore it will be difficult to find service providers which could offer a dynamic combined Car/PT-routing.

• In-vehicle information systems (including collective systems like RDS-TMC, Digital Radio/DAB or Variable Message Signs as well as individual systems like Dynamic Route Guidance) have the potential to reduce travel time and drivers' stress. It has been shown that DRG systems have the potential to reduce travel time on average by 15 % with peak values of 30 % in normal situations and 45 % under special circumstances. In-vehicle information systems influence route and departure time choice, the influence on mode choice is insignificant.

• Due to technical and organisational problems, the introduction of Dynamic Route Guidance Systems has been slower than expected. Representatives from City authorities fear that cars equipped with DRG systems could be guided through side streets and residential areas which would lead to an increase of the population's exposure on traffic emissions. The wish for influence on DRG service providers strategies as well as discussions on the extent and financing of data provision impeded the implementation of DRG services and are in our opinion also one reason for the change of the technology used. Some effects of DRG Systems on modal choice and travel time have been shown, but neither the impacts on traffic patterns (especially on car usage, the acceptance of route recommendations and vehicle-miles travelled) nor the environmental impacts in case of an extensive DRG deployment are understood satisfactorily.

• On-trip information systems for public transport have high user acceptance and improve both the passengers' perception of the service and the image of the PT operator. Passengers stated that they will use PT more often, but only little or no increase in the use of PT as a direct impact of the improved information could be shown.

5. Implementation of transport telematics in Germany

Within the framework of our study, experiences made in the German and European field trials and the project management structures of these trails were investigated. None of the projects has led to a breakthrough of one or more telematics application but valuable information was gathered not only on technical and economic, but also on institutional and legal issues.

It was shown that several transport telematics services have the potential to contribute to reduce the negative impacts of traffic and to make the transportation system more efficient. The introduction of transport telematics can not substitute other measures to reduce negative traffic impacts or to shift road traffic to environmentally sounder means of transport, but it might support these measures and increase or "shape" their effects.

Traffic management is a telematics application that is expected to contribute to the reduction of traffic-induced problems to a large extent. A wide variety of instruments (e.g. information, recommendations, offering transportation alternatives, pricing, regula-tions) can be used to influence ("to manage") travel behaviour (Fig. 1). The introduction of new information and communication technologies in transportation opens new possibilities to implement new traffic management strategies. They would allow to introduce instruments that affect (and control) traffic more efficient and more precise than the instruments currently available.

The selection of instruments used for a certain traffic management strategy is important for its effectiveness as well as for its acceptance/acceptability. Generally speaking, the chance of realisation of a traffic management strategy seems to be dependent on its "intervention intensity". Strategies based on the (qualitative and quantitative) improvement of the information given to the driver to modify their behaviour and route choices are less effective but easier to be implemented than strategies that make use of regulations and pricing as main components.

Fig. 1: Traffic Management - Instruments and Terminology

Our analysis leads to the conclusion that joint co-operative projects led by authorities were more successful with regard to the achievement of transportation policy goals than industry-led projects. Some telematics services which could have significant contributions to the solution of traffic problems appear not to be cost-effective from a commercial point of view. On the other hand, the effects of some telematics services that are promising profitability are expected to come into conflict (at least partially) with the political goals. Therefore, local and federal policy should keep or gain influence on the TT implementation process.

Among German policymakers and representatives from authorities and industry, we found a discrepancy between the high hopes placed in transport telematics and the willingness to actively open up its potential. One major problem is the lack of a broadly accepted and implementable strategy for the use of telematics applications. According to the German government, development and market introduction of telematics applications shall - with few exceptions - be left to the private sector. The designs of telematics services proposed by industry are mainly oriented on industry's (economic) interests, they often come into conflict with the aims of transportation policy. The problem becomes more complicated due to the fact that the communities and the German Länder have strong own powers in the field of transportation policy and - because of different political majorities in the federal government and in several Länder governments and communities - fairly different political goals.

Even though one of the major effects of telematics is expected to be a better connection of the modes of traffic, the systems currently being discussed will most likely lead to distinct impacts within the individual component systems - for the individual modes of traffic. What is lacking is a clear conception of telematics systems still requiring development as well as strategies for the integration of individual solutions into a solution for the overall system of transport. We therefore believe that it is necessary to create new intermodal organisational structures - and perhaps financing models - for providers that offer intermodal ATT services.

6. Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank all scientists who contributed to the project. Special thanks to Manfred Wacker and Burkhard Flasche (Institut für Straßen- und Verkehrswesen der Universität Stuttgart) for their collaboration in the survey of the field trials and to all representatives from governmental (communities, Länder and Federal) authorities and from industry who supported this project by delivering background information and commenting on our conclusions. The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors.

References

(1) Optionen zur Entlastung des Verkehrsnetzes und zur Verlagerung von Straßenverkehr auf umweltfreundlichere Verkehrsträger. Deutscher Bundestag. Drucksache 13 / 11447, Bonn 1998 (in German).

Table 1: Qualitative assessment of several telematics applications